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  • 统计与管理学院2016年学术报告第36

     

    【主  题】A QUANTITATIVE INQUIRY ON AN EPIDEMIC OF A NEW SUICIDE METHOD: THE CHARCOAL BURNING SUICIDE

    【报告人】Paul Yip Ph.D.

    Hong Kong Jockey Club Centre for Suicide Research and Prevention,

    The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR

    【时  间】 2016年10月07日(星期五)15:30-16:30

    【地  点】 上海财经大学统计与管理学院大楼1208室

    【摘  要】Since the first reported case of charcoal burning (CB) by a local newspaper in November 1998, this suicide method has escalated into an epidemic in just two years and raised serious public health concern. The present paper applied the chain of infection model to examine how the epidemic of CB suicide took place in Hong Kong in 1998-2005.  A self- and mutual- exciting process model was fitted to the data, adjusting for divorce rate, unemployment rate, and property price index. Breaking the whole period into three stages of the epidemic, the model was fitted again to examine the differences. CB suicide news constantly showed significant effects on CB suicides, so did other suicide news on other suicides. CB suicides reported significant self-excitation effect in general, particularly in the onset and peak stages, whereas other suicides did not. Higher divorce rate and lower property price index significantly influenced more CB and other suicides incidences, but unemployment rate did not. Mass media played significant role in spreading new suicide method and sustaining suicide rates high in HK, which was facilitated by the adverse social economic environment especially in the onset period. Interventions targeted at the media is therefore vital in preventing another suicide epidemic outbreak.

     

    【邀请人】 周勇