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【主 题】 Multilevel Joint Modeling of Hospitalization and Survival in Patients on Dialysis

【报告人】 Esra Kurum, 助教授

University of California, Riverside

【时 间】 2019年1223   13:30-14:30

【地 点】 上海财经大学统计与管理学院大楼1208会议室

 More than 720,000 patients with end-stage renal disease in the U.S. require life- sustaining dialysis treatment that is predominantly administered at local dialysis facilities. In this population of typically older patients with a high morbidity burden, hospitalization is frequent at a rate of about twice per patient-year. Aside from frequent hospitalizations, which is a major source of death risk, overall mortality in dialysis patients is higher than other comparable populations, including Medicare patients with cancer. Thus, understanding patient- and facility-level risk factors that jointly contribute to longitudinal hospitalizations and mortality is of interest. Towards this objective, we propose a novel methodology to jointly model hospitalization, a binary longitudinal outcome, and survival, based on multilevel data from the United States Renal Data System, with repeated observations over time nested in patients and patients nested in dialysis facilities. Motivated by the data structure, the proposed joint modeling approach includes multilevel random effects and multilevel covariates, at both the patient and facility levels. An approximate Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is developed for estimation where fully exponential Laplace approximations are utilized to address computational challenges and standard error formulas for the estimated parameters are derived.

嘉宾简介Esra Kurum博士加州大学河滨分校(University of California, Riverside)统计系助理教授,Esra Kurum2012年获得宾夕法尼亚州立大学(The Pennsylvania State University)博士学位,在进入加州大学河滨分校之前,是耶鲁大学(Yale University)的微生物流行病系的博士后研究员。她的研究领域包括变点模型(Change-Point Models),基于Copula的建模(Copula-Based Modeling),纵向和生存数据分析(Longitudinal and Survival Data Analysis)以及非参数和半参数建模(Nonparametric and Semiparametric Modeling)。Esra Kurum2007-2009年被评选为富布赖特学者(Fulbright Scholar),2012年获得美国国家癌症研究所青年研究者旅行奖(National Cancer Institute Young Investigator Travel Award),2017-2018年被选为NSF/HHMI科学教学研究员(NSF/HHMI Scientific Teaching Fellow),2018年获得肯尼斯罗斯曼流行病学奖(Kenneth Rothman Epidemiology Prize)。近些年来,她在Statistics in Medicine Statistics and Its InterfaceCanadian Journal of Statistics等国际统计期刊发表20余篇文章。